Macro-quantitative Analysis of Kyoto Mechanism

The Kyoto Protocol, as adopted at the Third Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP3), has introduced the Kyoto Mechanism (including the Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, and Clean Development Mechanism systems) to promote the efficient achievement of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Calls have grown for global efforts to enhance the Kyoto Mechanism. This study represents a quantitative analysis of the Kyoto Mechanism, taking advantage of a world economy and energy model under a hypothetical situation where no problem exists with the actual implementation of the Kyoto Mechanism. Specifically, the author has estimated global CO2 emissions, energy investment and the marginal cost of CO2 emission reduction based on shadow price concept.kyoto protocol, Emission Reduction, Japan, China

エネルギー市場自由化の下でのオンサイト電源導入可能性評価

University of Tokyo (東京大学

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of CO2 Reduction in the Automobile Sector

Various problems relating to energy and the environment clearly exist, such as global warming and a steep rise in the price fossil fuels, and resources. These problems should be addressed in the medium term or long run. As for the abatement of greenhouse gas emission, active discussions have been held on the stage of world politics to achieve the long-term goal. Although various approaches have been proposed by several research institutions and countries, sufficient studies have not yet been conducted on the roles of individual countries and sectors. Specifically, in the automotive transportation sector wherein oil demand and CO2 emissions are estimated to rise in the future with the marked progress of motorization in developing countries, it is increasingly important to study these subjects. We focused on the automotive transportation sector and studied the CO2 abatement potential and its cost performance in this sector. This article reports the results of the study.energy and the environment, Climate change, automotive transportation

Japan’s Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 – Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

In this analysis, we projected Japans energy demand/supply and energy-related CO2 emissions to 2050. Our analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japans CO2 emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005) (Figure 1). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO2 emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO2 emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO2 emissions per primary energy demand (CO2/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO2 emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources (Figure 2). In order to realize this massive CO2 abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.energy demand, energy supply, GHG emisisons, energy forecasting

Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes the importance of improving the electrification rates to reducing GHG emissions. Using the five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused on the demand-side decarbonization and analyzed the final energy composition required to achieve 80% reductions in GHGs by 2050 in Japan. The model results show that the electricity share in final energy use (electrification rate) needs to reach 37–66% in 2050 (26% in 2010) to achieve the emissions reduction of 80%. The electrification rate increases mainly due to switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, oil stove and combustion-engine vehicles) to electricity end-use technologies (i.e. heat pump water heater and electric vehicles). The electricity consumption in 2050 other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 and 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable to the level seen in the last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). The pace at which electrification rate must be increased is a challenge. The model results suggest to increase the electrification pace to 0.46–1.58%/yr from 2030 to 2050. Neither the past electrification pace (0.30%/year from 1990 to 2010) nor the outlook of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (0.15%/year from 2010 to 2030) is enough to reach the suggested electrification rates in 2050. Therefore, more concrete measures to accelerate dissemination of electricity end-use technologies across all sectors need to be established

Japan's Residential Energy Demand Outlook to 2030 Considering Energy Efficiency Standards "Top-Runner Approach"

As one of the measures to achieve the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions agreed to in the "Kyoto Protocol," an institutional scheme for determining energy efficiency standards for energy-consuming appliances, called the "Top-Runner Approach," was developed by the Japanese government. Its goal is to strengthen the legal underpinnings of various energy conservation measures. Particularly in Japan's residential sector, where energy demand has grown vigorously so far, this efficiency standard is expected to play a key role in mitigating both energy demand growth and the associated CO2 emissions. This paper presents an outlook of Japan's residential energy demand, developed by a stochastic econometric model for the purpose of analyzing the impacts of the Japan's energy efficiency standards, as well as the future stochastic behavior of income growth, demography, energy prices, and climate on the future energy demand growth to 2030. In this analysis, we attempt to explicitly take into consideration more than 30 kinds of electricity uses, heating, cooling and hot water appliances in order to comprehensively capture the progress of energy efficiency in residential energy end-use equipment. Since electricity demand, is projected to exhibit astonishing growth in Japan's residential sector due to universal increasing ownership of electric and other appliances, it is important to implement an elaborate efficiency standards policy for these appliances

Macro-quantitative Analysis of Kyoto Mechanism

The Kyoto Protocol, as adopted at the Third Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP3), has introduced the Kyoto Mechanism (including the Emissions Trading, Joint Implementation, and Clean Development Mechanism systems) to promote the efficient achievement of greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. Calls have grown for global efforts to enhance the Kyoto Mechanism. This study represents a quantitative analysis of the Kyoto Mechanism, taking advantage of a world economy and energy model under a hypothetical situation where no problem exists with the actual implementation of the Kyoto Mechanism. Specifically, the author has estimated global CO2 emissions, energy investment and the marginal cost of CO2 emission reduction based on shadow price concept.Kyoto Protocol, Emission Reduction, Japan, China